ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Carlos Sanchez Jover

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

39.38%

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Spain

60.62%

Average Odds

2.44 / 1.51

Market probability

38.23% / 61.77%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Sanchez Jover is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1628 vs 1555), a higher Elo rating (1608 vs 1531) and a stronger return game (39.7% vs 37.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1531.2 Elo 1608.0

1555.2 Elo (surface) 1628.5

66 Wins (Challenger) 88

66 Wins (surface) 83

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.889 Dominance ratio 0.938

427 Rank 374

24.1 Age 26.0

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Carlos Sanchez Jover

1st Serve In %

—

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

38.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Carlos Sanchez Jover

Break Points Saved %

—

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Carlos Sanchez Jover

Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Carlos Sanchez Jover #377

Valerio Aboian #428

6-2 2-6 6-2

4 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 4

70 Service Points 82

35 First Serve In 56

20 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Valerio Aboian vs Carlos Sanchez Jover — Prediction