ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Andrea Pellegrino

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · R16 20:30

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

30.09%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

69.91%

Average Odds

4.31 / 1.18

Market probability

21.49% / 78.51%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Pellegrino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1787 vs 1611), a higher Elo rating (1774 vs 1606) and more wins on clay courts (27 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1606.0 Elo 1774.3

1610.8 Elo (surface) 1786.9

72 Wins (Challenger) 214

72 Wins (surface) 193

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.986 Dominance ratio 0.906

431 Rank 129

24.2 Age 29.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

—

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

—

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 1 Andrea Pellegrino

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Valerio Aboian #431

Andrea Pellegrino #129

6-3 6-2

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

22 First Serve Won 16

14 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.3 Average Odds 1.2

Clay Rosario CH · 2025-02-03

Q1

Andrea Pellegrino #254

Valerio Aboian #436

6-3 6-1

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

54 Service Points 57

40 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 16

7 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Valerio Aboian vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction