ATP tennis predict — Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 05:30

Predicted probability

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

44.27%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

55.73%

Average Odds

2.28 / 1.61

Market probability

41.39% / 58.61%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1967 vs 1912), more wins on hard courts (258 vs 32) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.11).

Player Comparison

1970.9 Elo 2023.7

1912.5 Elo (surface) 1967.2

53 Wins 430

32 Wins (surface) 258

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.052 Dominance ratio 0.918

18 Rank 44

27.9 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valentin Vacherot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Vacherot Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

61.7%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Vacherot Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valentin Vacherot and Stefanos Tsitsipas have never played each other.

Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction