ATP tennis predict — Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

70.18%

Mariano Navone

Argentina

29.82%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.43

Market probability

60.90% / 39.10%

Why This Prediction?

Valentin Vacherot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1809 vs 1472), a stronger serve (70.2% vs 61.0% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (43 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1725.5 Elo 1784.5

1808.6 Elo (surface) 1471.8

50 Wins 63

29 Wins (surface) 11

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.987 Dominance ratio 0.908

18 Rank 44

27.7 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valentin Vacherot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Vacherot Mariano Navone

1st Serve In %

63.5%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

37.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.05

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Vacherot Mariano Navone

Break Points Saved %

56.4%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

28.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valentin Vacherot 1 – 0 Mariano Navone

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Mariano Navone #44

Valentin Vacherot #18

1-6 6-3 6-3

7 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 78

51 First Serve In 55

32 First Serve Won 35

15 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

19 Winners 11

54 Unforced Errors 32

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Miami Masters · 2026-03-18

R64

Valentin Vacherot #25

Mariano Navone #61

6-3 6-4

9 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 58

40 First Serve In 42

34 First Serve Won 31

12 Second Serve Won 5

5 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone — Prediction