ATP tennis predict — Valentin Royer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Valentin Royer

France

25.94%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

74.06%

Average Odds

3.82 / 1.27

Market probability

24.95% / 75.05%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1814 vs 1593), a higher Elo rating (1843 vs 1710) and a stronger serve (69.8% vs 61.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1709.9 Elo 1843.1

1593.3 Elo (surface) 1814.4

34 Wins 423

25 Wins (surface) 251

4 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.943 Dominance ratio 1.124

78 Rank 53

25.2 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valentin Royer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Royer Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

61.1%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.5%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.0%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Royer Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valentin Royer 1 – 0 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Stefanos Tsitsipas #53

Valentin Royer #78

7-6 7-5

2 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 76

46 First Serve In 40

31 First Serve Won 28

14 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 2

16 Winners 32

33 Unforced Errors 34

1.3 Average Odds 3.8

Grass Wimbledon · 2025-06-30

R128

Valentin Royer #113

Stefanos Tsitsipas #26

6-3 6-2 RET

8 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 7

50 Service Points 60

34 First Serve In 26

27 First Serve Won 16

10 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Valentin Royer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction