ATP tennis predict — Valentin Royer vs Gonzalo Bueno

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · QF 19:00

Predicted probability

Valentin Royer

France

75.97%

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

24.03%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.44

Market probability

79.00% / 21.00%

Why This Prediction?

Valentin Royer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1616 vs 1503), a stronger serve (65.1% vs 52.0% of service points won) and a stronger return game (45.3% vs 35.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1716.4 Elo 1686.3

1615.8 Elo (surface) 1502.6

113 Wins (Challenger) 105

41 Wins (surface) 4

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.297 Dominance ratio 0.748

78 Rank 178

25.2 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valentin Royer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Royer Gonzalo Bueno

1st Serve In %

61.1%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.5%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.0%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Royer Gonzalo Bueno

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valentin Royer 0 – 0 Gonzalo Bueno

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-20

QF

Valentin Royer #78

Gonzalo Bueno #178

6-1 6-1

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 4

37 Service Points 42

25 First Serve In 19

19 First Serve Won 10

9 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.4

Valentin Royer vs Gonzalo Bueno — Prediction