ATP tennis predict — Valentin Garay vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · 1. round 19:30

Predicted probability

Valentin Garay

Argentina

9.55%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

90.45%

Average Odds

9.22 / 1.04

Market probability

10.14% / 89.86%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Barrena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1662 vs 1391), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1667 vs 1398) and more wins on clay courts (86 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1391.0 Elo 1662.1

1398.1 Elo (surface) 1666.9

1 Wins (Challenger) 86

1 Wins (surface) 86

1 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.591 Dominance ratio 0.948

1550 Rank 240

19.5 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valentin Garay

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-22.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Garay Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

—

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.4%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.6%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.9%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valentin Garay Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

—

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.3%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valentin Garay 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Buenos Aires challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Alex Barrena #240

Valentin Garay #1550

6-2 6-2

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

19 First Serve Won 17

9 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 9.2

Valentin Garay vs Alex Barrena — Prediction