ATP tennis predict — Vadym Ursu vs Tiago Pereira

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

37.90%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

62.10%

Average Odds

3.15 / 1.31

Market probability

29.37% / 70.63%

Why This Prediction?

Tiago Pereira is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1522 vs 1461), fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.38) and a stronger serve (63.9% vs 49.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1426.4 Elo 1425.5

1460.6 Elo (surface) 1522.4

43 Wins (Challenger) 30

36 Wins (surface) 12

6 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.847 Dominance ratio 0.994

401 Rank 389

29.6 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vadym Ursu Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

59.7%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.0%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.2%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.0%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.70

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.2%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vadym Ursu Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

48.4%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

16.7%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vadym Ursu 1 – 0 Tiago Pereira

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Tiago Pereira #389

Vadym Ursu #401

3-6 6-3 6-4

3 Aces 9

5 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 92

52 First Serve In 47

34 First Serve Won 35

16 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Hard Porto CH · 2024-07-29

Q1

Vadym Ursu #338

Tiago Pereira #538

6-3 6-1

1 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 45

33 First Serve In 24

24 First Serve Won 12

8 Second Serve Won 8

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Vadym Ursu vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction