ATP tennis predict — Vadym Ursu vs Denis Yevseyev

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

33.56%

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

66.44%

Average Odds

2.34 / 1.55

Market probability

39.85% / 60.15%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Yevseyev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1523 vs 1410), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1498 vs 1447) and more wins on hard courts (126 vs 35).

Player Comparison

1409.6 Elo 1522.8

1446.8 Elo (surface) 1497.8

42 Wins (Challenger) 200

35 Wins (surface) 126

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.922 Dominance ratio 0.976

416 Rank 441

29.6 Age 33.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Denis Yevseyev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vadym Ursu Denis Yevseyev

1st Serve In %

59.7%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.0%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.2%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.0%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.70

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

70.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.2%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vadym Ursu Denis Yevseyev

Break Points Saved %

48.4%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

16.7%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vadym Ursu 0 – 0 Denis Yevseyev

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-30

R16

Vadym Ursu #416

Denis Yevseyev #441

4-6 6-3 6-3

1 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 9

82 Service Points 106

56 First Serve In 62

40 First Serve Won 43

7 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Vadym Ursu vs Denis Yevseyev — Prediction