ATP tennis predict — Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Lehecka

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 03:00

Predicted probability

Ugo Humbert

France

38.05%

Jiri Lehecka

Czech Republic

61.95%

Average Odds

2.55 / 1.50

Market probability

37.04% / 62.96%

Why This Prediction?

Jiri Lehecka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1999 vs 1947), a higher Elo rating (2065 vs 1972) and a stronger serve (70.4% vs 67.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1972.4 Elo 2065.3

1947.1 Elo (surface) 1999.4

213 Wins 164

151 Wins (surface) 113

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.197 Dominance ratio 1.310

32 Rank 23

28.3 Age 24.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ugo Humbert

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jiri Lehecka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Humbert Jiri Lehecka

1st Serve In %

62.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

78.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

56.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.5%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Humbert Jiri Lehecka

Break Points Saved %

73.4%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ugo Humbert 1 – 0 Jiri Lehecka

Hard Dubai · 2025-02-24

R32

Ugo Humbert #15

Jiri Lehecka #22

6-3 6-0

6 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 55

29 First Serve In 36

24 First Serve Won 19

11 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Lehecka — Prediction