ATP tennis predict — Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Ugo Humbert

France

78.96%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

21.04%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.94

Market probability

67.74% / 32.26%

Why This Prediction?

Ugo Humbert is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1787 vs 1442), a higher Elo rating (1858 vs 1751) and a stronger return game (45.1% vs 34.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1858.0 Elo 1750.9

1786.7 Elo (surface) 1442.1

212 Wins 26

150 Wins (surface) 7

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.164 Dominance ratio 0.901

28 Rank 63

28.1 Age 21.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ugo Humbert

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

61.0%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ugo Humbert 0 – 0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

Ugo Humbert #28

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 4

79 Service Points 55

43 First Serve In 39

30 First Serve Won 29

13 Second Serve Won 7

9 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 2

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction