ATP tennis predict — Ugo Humbert vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 04:10

Predicted probability

Ugo Humbert

France

39.09%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

60.91%

Average Odds

2.79 / 1.43

Market probability

33.89% / 66.11%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2009 vs 1933), a higher Elo rating (2064 vs 1959) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 64.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1959.2 Elo 2063.6

1932.9 Elo (surface) 2008.7

212 Wins 184

150 Wins (surface) 127

8 Last 15 form 11

4 Head-to-head wins 1

1.197 Dominance ratio 1.107

32 Rank 17

28.3 Age 25.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ugo Humbert

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Humbert Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.6%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Humbert Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ugo Humbert 4 – 1 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Paris Masters · 2024-10-28

R64

Ugo Humbert #18

Brandon Nakashima #35

6-3 4-6 6-4

9 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

84 Service Points 82

51 First Serve In 48

43 First Serve Won 35

20 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo · 2024-09-25

R16

Ugo Humbert #18

Brandon Nakashima #36

6-3 6-2

7 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 44

35 First Serve In 32

31 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 3

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R32

Ugo Humbert #16

Brandon Nakashima #65

7-6(9) 6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(6)

25 Aces 18

4 Double Faults 3

151 Service Points 155

92 First Serve In 106

73 First Serve Won 79

38 Second Serve Won 28

2 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2022-05-09

Q1

Brandon Nakashima #76

Ugo Humbert #44

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 53

33 First Serve In 39

31 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 3

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard US Open · 2018-08-27

Q2

Ugo Humbert #139

Brandon Nakashima

7-6(4) 6-3

8 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 2

66 Service Points 77

38 First Serve In 43

31 First Serve Won 29

16 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 10

3 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ugo Humbert vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Ugo Humbert — Last 10

Brandon Nakashima — Last 10