ATP tennis predict — Ugo Blanchet vs Nicolas Mejia

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Ugo Blanchet

France

47.44%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

52.56%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1664.6 Elo 1782.2

1710.4 Elo (surface) 1642.9

79 Wins (Challenger) 160

44 Wins (surface) 88

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.993 Dominance ratio 1.041

320 Rank 119

27.7 Age 26.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ugo Blanchet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Blanchet Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

52.8%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.7%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ugo Blanchet Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.9%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ugo Blanchet 0 – 0 Nicolas Mejia

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Ugo Blanchet #320

Nicolas Mejia #119

4-1

1 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

5 First Serve Won 6

4 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Ugo Blanchet vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction