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Tyler Zink vs Zhizhen Zhang — Prediction

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Tyler Zink

USA

41.79%

Zhizhen Zhang

China

58.21%

Average Odds

2.90  /  1.38

Market probability

32.24%  /  67.76%

Why This Prediction?

Zhizhen Zhang is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1555), more wins on hard courts (55 vs 1) and a stronger serve (69.1% vs 62.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1554.7 Elo 1663.7
1570.6 Elo (surface) 1522.1
41 Wins (Challenger) 114
28 Wins (surface) 49
9 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.915 Dominance ratio 1.069
328 Rank 158
25.5 Age 29.8
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tyler Zink

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–8L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Zhizhen Zhang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Zhizhen Zhang

1st Serve In %

62.1%
64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%
72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%
46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%
29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.7%
42.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.81
0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%
61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%
75.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%
53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%
23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%
50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.55
0.92

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Zhizhen Zhang

Break Points Saved %

60.6%
59.1%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%
52.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.3%
71.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%
31.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tyler Zink 00 Zhizhen Zhang

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Zhizhen Zhang #158

Tyler Zink #328

7-6 6-3
4 Aces 7
0 Double Faults 2
60 Service Points 63
34 First Serve In 35
24 First Serve Won 32
18 Second Serve Won 18
4 Break Points Saved 2
5 Break Points Faced 2
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Tyler Zink — Last 10

L L L L W L L W L W

Zhizhen Zhang — Last 10

L L W L L L W W W W