ATP tennis predict — Tyler Zink vs Nicolas Arseneault

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Tyler Zink

USA

55.81%

Nicolas Arseneault

Canada

44.19%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.11

Market probability

71.00% / 29.00%

Why This Prediction?

Tyler Zink is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1541 vs 1443), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1544 vs 1444) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1540.5 Elo 1443.0

1544.4 Elo (surface) 1444.1

41 Wins (Challenger) 9

28 Wins (surface) 9

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.010

328 Rank 718

25.5 Age 19.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tyler Zink

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–8L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Nicolas Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Nicolas Arseneault

1st Serve In %

62.1%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

19.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.7%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Nicolas Arseneault

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.3%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tyler Zink 0 – 0 Nicolas Arseneault

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - 1. round

Tyler Zink #343

Nicolas Arseneault #720

6-4 6-3

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Tyler Zink vs Nicolas Arseneault — Prediction