ATP tennis predict — Tyler Zink vs Karl Poling

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Tyler Zink

USA

48.59%

Karl Poling

USA

51.41%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.47

Market probability

64.66% / 35.34%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1555.2 Elo 1552.0

1560.9 Elo (surface) 1561.3

42 Wins (Challenger) 32

29 Wins (surface) 22

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.063

343 Rank 491

25.5 Age 27.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tyler Zink

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–8L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Karl Poling

1st Serve In %

62.1%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.7%

32.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Karl Poling

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.3%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tyler Zink 0 – 0 Karl Poling

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - round of 16

Tyler Zink #343

Karl Poling #491

3-6 6-3 7-5

15 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

93 Service Points 91

46 First Serve In 58

35 First Serve Won 38

28 Second Serve Won 20

5 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.5

Tyler Zink vs Karl Poling — Prediction