ATP tennis predict — Tyler Zink vs Alexis Galarneau

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Tyler Zink

USA

37.51%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

62.49%

Average Odds

3.21 / 1.31

Market probability

28.98% / 71.02%

Why This Prediction?

Alexis Galarneau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1656 vs 1570), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1610 vs 1593) and a stronger return game (36.2% vs 34.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1570.1 Elo 1656.2

1592.6 Elo (surface) 1610.2

41 Wins (Challenger) 193

28 Wins (surface) 162

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.876 Dominance ratio 0.918

326 Rank 158

25.4 Age 27.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tyler Zink

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–8L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

62.1%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.7%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tyler Zink Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.3%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tyler Zink 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-15

R16

Alexis Galarneau #158

Tyler Zink #326

6-1 5-7 7-6

9 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 0

91 Service Points 93

52 First Serve In 52

38 First Serve Won 41

14 Second Serve Won 22

1 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Tyler Zink vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction