ATP tennis predict — Tung Lin Wu vs Luca Castelnuovo

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Tung Lin Wu

Chinese Taipei

72.64%

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

27.36%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.75

Market probability

66.27% / 33.73%

Why This Prediction?

Tung Lin Wu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1624 vs 1453), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1621 vs 1462) and more wins on hard courts (166 vs 25).

Player Comparison

1624.4 Elo 1453.5

1621.4 Elo (surface) 1461.7

196 Wins (Challenger) 33

166 Wins (surface) 25

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.995 Dominance ratio 1.241

370 Rank 461

28.3 Age 29.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tung Lin Wu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tung Lin Wu Luca Castelnuovo

1st Serve In %

63.1%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

54.5%

84.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

64.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

61.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.5%

68.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tung Lin Wu Luca Castelnuovo

Break Points Saved %

52.0%

92.3%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

16.9%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tung Lin Wu 0 – 0 Luca Castelnuovo

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Luca Castelnuovo #461

Tung Lin Wu #370

7-5 6-4

7 Aces 15

1 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

38 First Serve Won 36

9 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Tung Lin Wu vs Luca Castelnuovo — Prediction