ATP tennis predict — Tristan Schoolkate vs Soon Woo Kwon

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

25.36%

Soon Woo Kwon

South Korea

74.64%

Average Odds

1.03 / 1.03

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Soon Woo Kwon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1773 vs 1589), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1778 vs 1578) and a stronger return game (38.8% vs 30.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1589.0 Elo 1772.9

1578.3 Elo (surface) 1777.9

115 Wins (Challenger) 141

96 Wins (surface) 131

8 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.120 Dominance ratio 1.307

187 Rank 153

25.4 Age 28.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Soon Woo Kwon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Schoolkate Soon Woo Kwon

1st Serve In %

60.2%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

53.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Schoolkate Soon Woo Kwon

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

80.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

49.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Schoolkate 0 – 0 Soon Woo Kwon

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Soon Woo Kwon #153

Tristan Schoolkate #187

3-6 5-1

4 Aces 10

3 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 41

29 First Serve In 22

20 First Serve Won 18

12 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 1.0

Tristan Schoolkate vs Soon Woo Kwon — Prediction