ATP tennis predict — Tristan Schoolkate vs Quinn Vandecasteele

Challenger Hard Brownsburg challenger · R16 00:40

Predicted probability

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

71.04%

Quinn Vandecasteele

USA

28.96%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.72

Market probability

65.86% / 34.14%

Why This Prediction?

Tristan Schoolkate is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1598 vs 1468), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1589 vs 1490) and a stronger serve (67.2% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1598.1 Elo 1467.7

1589.3 Elo (surface) 1490.5

116 Wins (Challenger) 48

97 Wins (surface) 41

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.133 Dominance ratio 0.955

187 Rank 471

25.5 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Schoolkate Quinn Vandecasteele

1st Serve In %

60.2%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.84

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Schoolkate Quinn Vandecasteele

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Schoolkate 0 – 1 Quinn Vandecasteele

Hard Brownsburg challenger · 2026-08-14

R16

Tristan Schoolkate #187

Quinn Vandecasteele #471

2-6 6-2 6-4

8 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 3

80 Service Points 91

44 First Serve In 53

30 First Serve Won 35

19 Second Serve Won 21

7 Break Points Saved 8

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Hard Bloomfield Hills CH · 2024-07-01

R32

Quinn Vandecasteele #588

Tristan Schoolkate #176

4-6 6-3 6-4

7 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 8

116 Service Points 91

59 First Serve In 48

42 First Serve Won 38

31 Second Serve Won 19

13 Break Points Saved 4

15 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tristan Schoolkate vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Prediction