ATP tennis predict — Tristan Schoolkate vs Flavio Cobolli

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

34.97%

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

65.03%

Average Odds

4.44 / 1.21

Market probability

21.42% / 78.58%

Why This Prediction?

Flavio Cobolli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1828 vs 1652), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1688 vs 1638) and a stronger return game (39.0% vs 33.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1652.0 Elo 1828.2

1637.6 Elo (surface) 1687.6

34 Wins 135

28 Wins (surface) 68

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.923 Dominance ratio 1.043

180 Rank 6

25.5 Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Flavio Cobolli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Schoolkate Flavio Cobolli

1st Serve In %

60.2%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

52.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.2%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Schoolkate Flavio Cobolli

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

67.5%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

32.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Schoolkate 0 – 0 Flavio Cobolli

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Flavio Cobolli #6

Tristan Schoolkate #180

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5

4 Aces 10

4 Double Faults 4

111 Service Points 106

60 First Serve In 58

49 First Serve Won 47

21 Second Serve Won 31

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 2

29 Winners 43

29 Unforced Errors 18

1.2 Average Odds 4.4

Tristan Schoolkate vs Flavio Cobolli — Prediction