ATP tennis predict — Tristan Boyer vs Vilius Gaubas

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Tristan Boyer

USA

41.91%

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

58.09%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.56

Market probability

41.05% / 58.95%

Why This Prediction?

Vilius Gaubas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1737), more wins on clay courts (17 vs 2) and fewer double faults per game (0.06 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

1737.3 Elo 1782.0

1725.1 Elo (surface) 1718.2

91 Wins (Challenger) 83

56 Wins (surface) 74

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.187 Dominance ratio 1.008

209 Rank 141

25.5 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Boyer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Vilius Gaubas

1st Serve In %

62.8%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.9%

68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.7%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.5%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Vilius Gaubas

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

71.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Boyer 0 – 1 Vilius Gaubas

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

Q2

Vilius Gaubas #136

Tristan Boyer #119

7-5 6-3

1 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

72 Service Points 65

47 First Serve In 47

31 First Serve Won 27

12 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tristan Boyer vs Vilius Gaubas — Prediction