ATP tennis predict — Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · R16 21:00

Predicted probability

Tristan Boyer

USA

38.68%

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

61.32%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.21

Market probability

57.85% / 42.15%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Gorzny is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1761 vs 1658) and a higher Elo rating (1794 vs 1728).

Player Comparison

1727.7 Elo 1794.5

1658.0 Elo (surface) 1761.4

89 Wins (Challenger) 10

33 Wins (surface) 10

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.187 Dominance ratio 1.024

208 Rank 444

25.4 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Boyer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Sebastian Gorzny

1st Serve In %

62.8%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Sebastian Gorzny

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

57.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Boyer and Sebastian Gorzny have never played each other.

Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny — Prediction