ATP tennis predict — Tristan Boyer vs James Watt

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Tristan Boyer

USA

68.02%

James Watt

New Zealand

31.98%

Average Odds

1.19 / 3.89

Market probability

76.57% / 23.43%

Why This Prediction?

Tristan Boyer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1719 vs 1552), a stronger return game (39.6% vs 33.3% of return points won) and a stronger serve (65.5% vs 58.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1718.8 Elo 1551.6

1555.9 Elo (surface) 1552.5

87 Wins (Challenger) 22

31 Wins (surface) 12

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.111 Dominance ratio 0.995

170 Rank 889

25.3 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Boyer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

James Watt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer James Watt

1st Serve In %

62.8%

75.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer James Watt

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

76.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

39.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Boyer 0 – 0 James Watt

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

James Watt #889

Tristan Boyer #170

7-6 6-2

1 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 0

76 Service Points 70

44 First Serve In 53

30 First Serve Won 41

18 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.9 Average Odds 1.2

Tristan Boyer vs James Watt — Prediction