ATP tennis predict — Tristan Boyer vs Gabriel Diallo

ATP Hard Los Cabos · 1. round

Predicted probability

Tristan Boyer

USA

40.53%

Gabriel Diallo

Canada

59.47%

Average Odds

2.52 / 1.51

Market probability

37.47% / 62.53%

Why This Prediction?

Gabriel Diallo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1775 vs 1560), more wins on hard courts (62 vs 30) and a better head-to-head record against Tristan Boyer (2-0).

Player Comparison

1753.6 Elo 1730.1

1559.6 Elo (surface) 1774.8

23 Wins 74

17 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.165 Dominance ratio 0.978

162 Rank 99

25.3 Age 24.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Boyer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Gabriel Diallo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Gabriel Diallo

1st Serve In %

62.8%

67.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

75.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

55.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

79.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

58.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Gabriel Diallo

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

41.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

65.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

43.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Boyer 0 – 2 Gabriel Diallo

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-28

1. round

Tristan Boyer #162

Gabriel Diallo #99

7-5 6-2

11 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 3

62 Service Points 50

39 First Serve In 27

29 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

18 Winners 13

31 Unforced Errors 21

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Cary CH · 2024-08-12

QF

Gabriel Diallo #155

Tristan Boyer #210

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-4

11 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 3

103 Service Points 120

69 First Serve In 68

54 First Serve Won 50

19 Second Serve Won 29

2 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Sarasota CH · 2024-04-08

R16

Gabriel Diallo #150

Tristan Boyer #196

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4

7 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 7

97 Service Points 93

72 First Serve In 57

53 First Serve Won 35

9 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 10