ATP tennis predict — Tristan Boyer vs Edward Winter

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Tristan Boyer

USA

61.40%

Edward Winter

Australia

38.60%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.59

Market probability

64.43% / 35.57%

Why This Prediction?

Tristan Boyer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1721 vs 1635), a stronger serve (64.8% vs 56.3% of service points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1720.6 Elo 1634.9

1635.7 Elo (surface) 1625.8

87 Wins (Challenger) 41

31 Wins (surface) 39

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.187 Dominance ratio 1.178

182 Rank 344

25.4 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tristan Boyer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Edward Winter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Edward Winter

1st Serve In %

62.8%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

45.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tristan Boyer Edward Winter

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

25.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tristan Boyer 0 – 0 Edward Winter

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Tristan Boyer #214

Edward Winter #341

6-2 6-4

5 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

33 First Serve Won 27

13 Second Serve Won 12

7 Break Points Saved 9

7 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Tristan Boyer vs Edward Winter — Prediction