ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs

ATP Hard Shanghai · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

62.83%

Zizou Bergs

Belgium

37.17%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.72

Market probability

65.23% / 34.77%

Why This Prediction?

Tommy Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2109 vs 1970), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2016 vs 1883) and a better head-to-head record against Zizou Bergs (1-0).

Player Comparison

2108.8 Elo 1970.5

2015.7 Elo (surface) 1882.7

290 Wins 115

197 Wins (surface) 73

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.920 Dominance ratio 1.065

17 Rank 39

29.4 Age 27.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Zizou Bergs

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Zizou Bergs

1st Serve In %

60.1%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

73.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.5%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

77.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Zizou Bergs

Break Points Saved %

52.1%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul 1 – 0 Zizou Bergs

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R64

Tommy Paul #24

Zizou Bergs #47

6-1 6-2

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

39 Service Points 57

22 First Serve In 26

17 First Serve Won 15

13 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs — Prediction