ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

50.25%

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

49.75%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.20

Market probability

56.99% / 43.01%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2101.9 Elo 2007.4

2006.1 Elo (surface) 1956.9

289 Wins 56

196 Wins (surface) 35

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.920 Dominance ratio 1.052

17 Rank 14

29.4 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Valentin Vacherot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Valentin Vacherot

1st Serve In %

59.7%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

83.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

55.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Valentin Vacherot

Break Points Saved %

54.7%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul and Valentin Vacherot have never played each other.

Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot — Prediction