ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Valentin Royer

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 02:35

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

73.50%

Valentin Royer

France

26.50%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.85

Market probability

80.43% / 19.57%

Why This Prediction?

Tommy Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1896 vs 1717), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1758 vs 1604) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 60.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1895.6 Elo 1717.1

1758.0 Elo (surface) 1603.7

281 Wins 34

188 Wins (surface) 25

11 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.919 Dominance ratio 0.876

21 Rank 78

29.2 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Valentin Royer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Valentin Royer

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

56.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

39.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

60.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Valentin Royer

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul 0 – 0 Valentin Royer

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Tommy Paul #21

Valentin Royer #78

6-4 7-6

4 Aces 7

7 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 89

50 First Serve In 55

34 First Serve Won 41

19 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 9

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.2 Average Odds 4.8

Tommy Paul vs Valentin Royer — Prediction