ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkacz

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

46.95%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

53.05%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.21

Market probability

57.11% / 42.89%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1889.5 Elo 1838.5

1751.8 Elo (surface) 1811.4

282 Wins 261

189 Wins (surface) 173

10 Last 15 form 9

3 Head-to-head wins 2

0.858 Dominance ratio 0.920

21 Rank 72

29.2 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul 3 – 2 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-15

2. round

Tommy Paul #21

Hubert Hurkacz #72

6-4 6-7 6-3

1 Aces 19

3 Double Faults 3

110 Service Points 95

63 First Serve In 59

46 First Serve Won 44

28 Second Serve Won 18

9 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

24 Winners 30

39 Unforced Errors 43

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-07-03

3. round

Hubert Hurkacz #96

Tommy Paul #25

4-6 7-6 7-5 6-2

20 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 6

136 Service Points 138

80 First Serve In 80

65 First Serve Won 57

29 Second Serve Won 34

4 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 7

45 Winners 38

39 Unforced Errors 36

2.5 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Rome Masters · 2025-05-07

QF

Tommy Paul #12

Hubert Hurkacz #31

7-6(4) 6-3

1 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 2

91 Service Points 71

53 First Serve In 44

39 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2024-05-06

QF

Tommy Paul #16

Hubert Hurkacz #9

7-5 3-6 6-3

3 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 1

117 Service Points 97

81 First Serve In 52

44 First Serve Won 32

20 Second Serve Won 18

12 Break Points Saved 6

18 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2023-03-06

R32

Tommy Paul #19

Hubert Hurkacz #11

4-6 6-2 6-4

6 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 3

87 Service Points 81

58 First Serve In 44

47 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2021-11-01

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #10

Tommy Paul #53

7-5 7-6(4)

13 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 3

74 Service Points 85

49 First Serve In 45

35 First Serve Won 31

13 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul — Last 10

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10