ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli

ATP Hard Cincinnati · QF 21:00

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

56.07%

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

43.93%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.31

Market probability

58.93% / 41.07%

Why This Prediction?

Tommy Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1787 vs 1666), a higher Elo rating (1916 vs 1817) and more wins on hard courts (67 vs 20).

Player Comparison

1916.3 Elo 1816.9

1787.2 Elo (surface) 1666.1

285 Wins 133

192 Wins (surface) 66

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.817 Dominance ratio 1.027

24 Rank 10

29.3 Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Flavio Cobolli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Flavio Cobolli

1st Serve In %

59.6%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

52.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Flavio Cobolli

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

67.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

32.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul 0 – 1 Flavio Cobolli

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

QF

Flavio Cobolli #10

Tommy Paul #24

2-6 6-3 6-4

12 Aces 10

3 Double Faults 1

81 Service Points 84

49 First Serve In 45

37 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 25

6 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 4

28 Winners 21

39 Unforced Errors 30

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R64

Flavio Cobolli #31

Tommy Paul #13

6-2 4-6 7-5

9 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 4

97 Service Points 88

54 First Serve In 61

39 First Serve Won 42

22 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli — Prediction