ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

18.94%

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

81.06%

Average Odds

4.82 / 1.18

Market probability

19.67% / 80.33%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1993 vs 1800), a higher Elo rating (2082 vs 1924) and a stronger return game (42.2% vs 32.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1924.0 Elo 2081.9

1800.0 Elo (surface) 1992.9

288 Wins 315

195 Wins (surface) 167

10 Last 15 form 12

2 Head-to-head wins 6

0.843 Dominance ratio 1.118

21 Rank 3

29.3 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Carlos Alcaraz

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Carlos Alcaraz

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

53.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul 2 – 6 Carlos Alcaraz

Hard US Open · 2026-09-06

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Tommy Paul #21

6-4 6-3 6-4

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

91 Service Points 84

48 First Serve In 56

30 First Serve Won 42

20 Second Serve Won 18

10 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 4

18 Winners 33

32 Unforced Errors 32

1.2 Average Odds 4.8

Hard Australian Open · 2026-01-19

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Tommy Paul #20

7-6(6) 6-4 7-5

2 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 5

94 Service Points 109

66 First Serve In 59

52 First Serve Won 48

19 Second Serve Won 23

1 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

QF

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Tommy Paul #12

6-0 6-1 6-4

3 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 87

44 First Serve In 64

39 First Serve Won 35

9 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 11

0 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Paris Olympics · 2024-07-29

QF

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Tommy Paul #13

6-3 7-6(7)

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 0

79 Service Points 68

59 First Serve In 46

42 First Serve Won 33

11 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

QF

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Tommy Paul #13

5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2

7 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

119 Service Points 136

73 First Serve In 82

48 First Serve Won 47

29 Second Serve Won 27

6 Break Points Saved 19

10 Break Points Faced 27

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2023-08-14

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Tommy Paul #13

7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3

6 Aces 11

4 Double Faults 6

103 Service Points 152

67 First Serve In 99

48 First Serve Won 61

17 Second Serve Won 23

2 Break Points Saved 17

6 Break Points Faced 23

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2023-08-07

QF

Tommy Paul #14

Carlos Alcaraz #1

6-3 4-6 6-3

2 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 6

87 Service Points 99

54 First Serve In 66

37 First Serve Won 44

19 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2023-03-20

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Tommy Paul #19

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 2

56 Service Points 68

34 First Serve In 42

27 First Serve Won 29

15 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2022-08-08

R32

Tommy Paul #34

Carlos Alcaraz #4

6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3

4 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

130 Service Points 125

85 First Serve In 82

55 First Serve Won 55

24 Second Serve Won 19

8 Break Points Saved 15

11 Break Points Faced 19

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul — Last 10

Carlos Alcaraz — Last 10