ATP tennis predict — Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 04:40

Predicted probability

Tommy Paul

USA

69.28%

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Paraguay

30.72%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.38

Market probability

78.35% / 21.65%

Why This Prediction?

Tommy Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1898 vs 1753), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1765 vs 1564) and more wins on hard courts (190 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1897.7 Elo 1753.2

1765.0 Elo (surface) 1564.2

283 Wins 19

190 Wins (surface) 5

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.836 Dominance ratio 1.130

24 Rank 70

29.2 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

1st Serve In %

59.6%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tommy Paul Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

48.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.8%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

50.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tommy Paul 1 – 0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-18

3. round

Tommy Paul #24

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo #70

3-6 6-3 6-4

7 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

82 Service Points 90

51 First Serve In 55

37 First Serve Won 35

13 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 8

19 Winners 32

31 Unforced Errors 40

1.2 Average Odds 4.4

Clay Houston · 2026-03-30

R16

Tommy Paul #21

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo #101

3-6 6-4 6-4

3 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 0

100 Service Points 89

57 First Serve In 64

38 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Prediction