ATP tennis predict — Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 05:40

Predicted probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

36.73%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

63.27%

Average Odds

3.42 / 1.31

Market probability

27.70% / 72.30%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1967 vs 1847), a higher Elo rating (2024 vs 1913) and more wins on hard courts (21 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1912.8 Elo 2023.7

1846.7 Elo (surface) 1967.2

136 Wins 430

54 Wins (surface) 258

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.918

30 Rank 44

27.2 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

59.1%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.6%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Martin Etcheverry 0 – 2 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

R128

Stefanos Tsitsipas #20

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #53

7-5 6-3 6-4

12 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 6

93 Service Points 108

53 First Serve In 58

41 First Serve Won 39

25 Second Serve Won 23

1 Break Points Saved 9

2 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2024-04-08

R32

Stefanos Tsitsipas #12

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #31

6-1 6-0

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 0

46 Service Points 40

27 First Serve In 26

14 First Serve Won 11

15 Second Serve Won 2

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 10