ATP tennis predict — Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

44.92%

Mariano Navone

Argentina

55.08%

Average Odds

1.98 / 1.83

Market probability

48.03% / 51.97%

Why This Prediction?

Mariano Navone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1804 vs 1706) and a stronger return game (41.9% vs 36.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1705.6 Elo 1804.3

1682.3 Elo (surface) 1593.5

135 Wins 67

53 Wins (surface) 15

5 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.092 Dominance ratio 1.034

32 Rank 49

27.1 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Mariano Navone

1st Serve In %

60.4%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.6%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

37.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.05

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Mariano Navone

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

28.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1 – 0 Mariano Navone

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

3. round

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #32

Mariano Navone #49

6-4 6-4 6-3

8 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 84

50 First Serve In 57

38 First Serve Won 37

21 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

23 Winners 15

33 Unforced Errors 36

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Clay Montevideo CH · 2022-11-07

R16

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #85

Mariano Navone #245

6-4 6-1

4 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 3

42 Service Points 53

26 First Serve In 32

18 First Serve Won 15

9 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone — Prediction