ATP tennis predict — Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

26.20%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

73.80%

Average Odds

1.74 / 2.10

Market probability

54.69% / 45.31%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1828 vs 1689), a stronger return game (39.6% vs 33.7% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1704 vs 1660).

Player Comparison

1689.3 Elo 1828.1

1659.6 Elo (surface) 1703.7

134 Wins 42

52 Wins (surface) 24

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.024 Dominance ratio 1.100

32 Rank 101

27.1 Age 25.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

60.4%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.6%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Martin Etcheverry 0 – 0 Jacob Fearnley

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

2. round

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #32

Jacob Fearnley #101

6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3

9 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 11

118 Service Points 131

70 First Serve In 86

51 First Serve Won 49

21 Second Serve Won 23

8 Break Points Saved 11

12 Break Points Faced 18

31 Winners 33

41 Unforced Errors 57

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction