ATP tennis predict — Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Clay Umag · R16

Predicted probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

42.39%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

57.61%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.46

Market probability

61.65% / 38.35%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Merida Aguilar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1739 vs 1694), a higher Elo rating (1702 vs 1699) and a stronger return game (38.4% vs 34.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1698.9 Elo 1702.1

1694.4 Elo (surface) 1739.0

131 Wins 21

75 Wins (surface) 14

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.088 Dominance ratio 1.007

30 Rank 82

27.0 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

60.4%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.6%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Martin Etcheverry 0 – 0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Clay Umag · 2026-07-15

R16

Daniel Merida Aguilar #82

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #30

7-5 6-4

1 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

65 Service Points 57

49 First Serve In 41

33 First Serve Won 31

6 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

17 Winners 23

38 Unforced Errors 20

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction