ATP tennis predict — Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

55.15%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

44.85%

Average Odds

1.83 / 1.97

Market probability

51.84% / 48.16%

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Machac is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1766 vs 1716), a stronger serve (71.6% vs 61.3% of service points won) and a stronger return game (40.2% vs 34.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1742.7 Elo 1753.2

1766.3 Elo (surface) 1716.3

126 Wins 334

91 Wins (surface) 184

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.108 Dominance ratio 0.873

58 Rank 68

25.8 Age 35.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Machac Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

63.5%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.5%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.9%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Machac Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Machac 0 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Pablo Carreno Busta #68

Tomas Machac #58

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 5

53 Service Points 53

29 First Serve In 27

17 First Serve Won 18

10 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

18 Winners 9

38 Unforced Errors 19

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction