ATP tennis predict — Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea

ATP Hard Beijing · qualification - quarterfinal 05:00

Predicted probability

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

52.07%

Arthur Gea

France

47.93%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.67

Market probability

44.06% / 55.94%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1955.0 Elo 1927.3

1894.2 Elo (surface) 1949.0

126 Wins 22

91 Wins (surface) 18

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.050 Dominance ratio 0.967

75 Rank 58

26.0 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Machac Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

63.5%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.5%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.9%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Machac Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Machac 0 – 1 Arthur Gea

Hard Montpellier · 2026-02-02

R16

Arthur Gea #168

Tomas Machac #28

6-3 4-5 RET

6 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

46 Service Points 61

26 First Serve In 32

24 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea — Prediction