ATP tennis predict — Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

74.29%

Alexandre Muller

France

25.71%

Average Odds

1.36 / 2.89

Market probability

68.00% / 32.00%

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Machac is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1936 vs 1778), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1869 vs 1755) and a stronger return game (40.3% vs 35.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1936.1 Elo 1777.9

1869.4 Elo (surface) 1754.6

116 Wins (Challenger) 176

80 Wins (surface) 60

14 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.422 Dominance ratio 0.958

75 Rank 133

26.0 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Machac Alexandre Muller

1st Serve In %

63.1%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

42.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.5%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.9%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tomas Machac Alexandre Muller

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tomas Machac 1 – 1 Alexandre Muller

Hard Cassis CH · 2023-09-04

SF

Tomas Machac #121

Alexandre Muller #84

3-6 6-3 7-6(8)

6 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 2

108 Service Points 97

75 First Serve In 63

53 First Serve Won 46

18 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Doha · 2023-02-20

Q2

Alexandre Muller #170

Tomas Machac #120

4-6 7-6(7) 6-1

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 4

92 Service Points 96

71 First Serve In 65

57 First Serve Won 42

6 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8