ATP tennis predict — Tom Gentzsch vs Max Dahlin

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

79.48%

Max Dahlin

Sweden

20.52%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.50

Market probability

73.22% / 26.78%

Why This Prediction?

Tom Gentzsch is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1728 vs 1485), a higher Elo rating (1688 vs 1487) and more career match wins (55 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1688.2 Elo 1487.3

1727.9 Elo (surface) 1485.1

55 Wins (Challenger) 1

33 Wins (surface) 1

10 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.036 Dominance ratio 0.730

186 Rank 1378

22.9 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tom Gentzsch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Max Dahlin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tom Gentzsch Max Dahlin

1st Serve In %

62.9%

67.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.0%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

78.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

25.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

38.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tom Gentzsch Max Dahlin

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

76.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tom Gentzsch 0 – 0 Max Dahlin

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-30

R16

Max Dahlin #1378

Tom Gentzsch #186

6-4 3-6 7-6

7 Aces 4

9 Double Faults 4

103 Service Points 112

64 First Serve In 68

49 First Serve Won 43

18 Second Serve Won 26

7 Break Points Saved 5

10 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Tom Gentzsch vs Max Dahlin — Prediction