ATP tennis predict — Tom Gentzsch vs Luka Mikrut

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · QF 15:00

Predicted probability

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

44.33%

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

55.67%

Average Odds

1.75 / 2.00

Market probability

53.33% / 46.67%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Mikrut is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1870 vs 1817), a stronger serve (66.2% vs 62.9% of service points won) and more wins on clay courts (1 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1795.0 Elo 1776.7

1817.4 Elo (surface) 1869.9

62 Wins (Challenger) 59

40 Wins (surface) 52

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.957 Dominance ratio 1.032

166 Rank 239

23.0 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tom Gentzsch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Luka Mikrut

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tom Gentzsch Luka Mikrut

1st Serve In %

62.9%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.0%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

61.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

62.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tom Gentzsch Luka Mikrut

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

28.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

38.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tom Gentzsch 0 – 0 Luka Mikrut

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Luka Mikrut #239

Tom Gentzsch #166

6-3 4-6 6-3

3 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

38 First Serve Won 36

11 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2 Average Odds 1.8

Tom Gentzsch vs Luka Mikrut — Prediction