ATP tennis predict — Tom Gentzsch vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

64.41%

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

35.59%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.66

Market probability

65.04% / 34.96%

Why This Prediction?

Tom Gentzsch is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1711 vs 1595), a higher Elo rating (1674 vs 1578) and a stronger serve (62.7% vs 55.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1674.2 Elo 1578.4

1711.4 Elo (surface) 1594.8

54 Wins (Challenger) 129

32 Wins (surface) 121

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.985 Dominance ratio 0.943

186 Rank 259

22.9 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tom Gentzsch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tom Gentzsch Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

1st Serve In %

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

44.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

22.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.0%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

61.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.07

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tom Gentzsch Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tom Gentzsch 0 – 0 Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Tom Gentzsch #186

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #259

6-3 6-3

7 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 1

57 Service Points 68

37 First Serve In 36

31 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Tom Gentzsch vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Prediction