ATP tennis predict — Togan Tokac vs Ergi Kirkin

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Togan Tokac

Turkey

28.16%

Ergi Kirkin

Turkey

71.84%

Average Odds

5.01 / 1.14

Market probability

18.54% / 81.46%

Why This Prediction?

Ergi Kirkin is the favorite because he has more wins on clay courts (60 vs 0), better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 2) and more career match wins (95 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1532.8 Elo 1497.9

1500 Elo (surface) 1497.7

2 Wins (Challenger) 95

0 Wins (surface) 60

2 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.196 Dominance ratio 0.956

1504 Rank 660

None Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Togan Tokac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Ergi Kirkin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Togan Tokac Ergi Kirkin

1st Serve In %

—

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

53.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.5%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.3%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Togan Tokac Ergi Kirkin

Break Points Saved %

—

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.7%

46.0%

Break Points Converted %

64.0%

44.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Togan Tokac 0 – 0 Ergi Kirkin

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Ergi Kirkin #657

Togan Tokac #1519

6-4 6-2

3 Aces 4

9 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 60

24 First Serve In 28

20 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.0

Togan Tokac vs Ergi Kirkin — Prediction