ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Yosuke Watanuki

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

57.98%

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

42.02%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.06

Market probability

69.39% / 30.61%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1819 vs 1664), a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1629) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 59.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1664.1 Elo 1629.5

1819.3 Elo (surface) 1663.8

42 Wins (Challenger) 156

37 Wins (surface) 142

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.891 Dominance ratio 1.025

127 Rank 316

23.9 Age 28.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Yosuke Watanuki

1st Serve In %

63.0%

50.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

54.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Yosuke Watanuki

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel 0 – 0 Yosuke Watanuki

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Toby Samuel #127

Yosuke Watanuki #316

6-0 6-1

3 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 7

45 Service Points 39

22 First Serve In 20

9 First Serve Won 19

7 Second Serve Won 9

5 Break Points Saved 0

10 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Toby Samuel vs Yosuke Watanuki — Prediction