ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

62.62%

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

37.38%

Average Odds

1.68 / 2.19

Market probability

56.59% / 43.41%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1867 vs 1734), a higher Elo rating (1776 vs 1718) and more aces per game (0.23 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1775.6 Elo 1718.2

1867.3 Elo (surface) 1733.9

7 Wins 126

3 Wins (surface) 91

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.084 Dominance ratio 1.124

110 Rank 58

24.0 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Tomas Machac

1st Serve In %

63.0%

63.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

65.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

56.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Tomas Machac

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel 0 – 0 Tomas Machac

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Toby Samuel #110

Tomas Machac #58

6-2 6-3 6-2

4 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

79 Service Points 69

50 First Serve In 49

38 First Serve Won 25

19 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 10

24 Winners 22

13 Unforced Errors 25

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac — Prediction