ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Mackenzie Mcdonald

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

71.77%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

28.23%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.17

Market probability

71.24% / 28.76%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1925 vs 1762), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1935 vs 1757) and a stronger serve (64.5% vs 63.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1924.8 Elo 1761.7

1934.8 Elo (surface) 1756.9

47 Wins (Challenger) 136

42 Wins (surface) 118

11 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.658 Dominance ratio 1.013

98 Rank 156

24.1 Age 31.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Mackenzie Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

63.0%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Mackenzie Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel and Mackenzie Mcdonald have never played each other.

Toby Samuel vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Prediction