ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Jack Pinnington Jones

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

65.88%

Jack Pinnington Jones

Great Britain

34.12%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.84

Market probability

67.14% / 32.86%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1867 vs 1522), a higher Elo rating (1733 vs 1664) and better recent form (11 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

1733.3 Elo 1664.1

1866.5 Elo (surface) 1521.9

46 Wins (Challenger) 50

41 Wins (surface) 32

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.709 Dominance ratio 0.990

112 Rank 172

23.9 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jack Pinnington Jones

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Jack Pinnington Jones

1st Serve In %

63.0%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Jack Pinnington Jones

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

40.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel 0 – 0 Jack Pinnington Jones

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Toby Samuel #112

Jack Pinnington Jones #172

7-5 6-1

0 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 51

37 First Serve In 31

22 First Serve Won 27

6 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Toby Samuel vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Prediction