ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

68.44%

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

31.56%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.75

Market probability

75.00% / 25.00%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1836 vs 1488) and a higher Elo rating (1724 vs 1536).

Player Comparison

1723.8 Elo 1536.1

1835.8 Elo (surface) 1487.8

4 Wins 12

0 Wins (surface) 8

4 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 0.858

113 Rank 166

24.0 Age 23.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Francesco Maestrelli

1st Serve In %

63.0%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Francesco Maestrelli

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel 0 – 0 Francesco Maestrelli

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Toby Samuel #110

Francesco Maestrelli #168

6-7 6-3 6-1

6 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 5

86 Service Points 90

54 First Serve In 57

40 First Serve Won 41

18 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 10

19 Winners 24

22 Unforced Errors 33

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli — Prediction