ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

52.35%

Cristian Garin

Chile

47.65%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.75

Market probability

66.11% / 33.89%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1750.1 Elo 1786.5

1852.6 Elo (surface) 1690.4

6 Wins 193

2 Wins (surface) 55

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.030 Dominance ratio 1.233

110 Rank 135

24.0 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Cristian Garin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Cristian Garin

1st Serve In %

63.0%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Cristian Garin

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel 0 – 0 Cristian Garin

Hard US Open · 2026-08-27

qualification - 3. round

Toby Samuel #110

Cristian Garin #135

4-6 6-4 5-0

4 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

88 Service Points 70

62 First Serve In 39

38 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 0

10 Break Points Faced 5

20 Winners 18

30 Unforced Errors 31

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin — Prediction